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(Dr Luke Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, University of Waikato)
In the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle, the climate change jury is in! Yet, the foot dragging continues. Wise Water Use examines the evidence, and finds one farmer who agrees that we all have an individual responsibility to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
Firstly, the findings.
Tom Belford, editor of Bay Buzz, cites 2 recent international climate studies which predict more frequent and intense rain events. The first study, from the World Weather Attribution group, found that heavy rain events like Cyclone Gabrielle have become about four times more common in our region, and drop around 30% more rain. The reason:
“Weather observations in the region show exactly what we expect from physics, which is that a warmer atmosphere accumulates more water and increases the frequency and intensity of downpours.” (Friederike Otto, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, Imperial College London)
The other study by NASA scientists published in the ‘Nature Water’ journal arrives at a similar conclusion having examined 20 years of satellite data to find that major droughts and rain events are occurring more often and are closely linked to global warming.
Closer to home, three Aotearoa/New Zealand scientists published their opinions about what was fuelling Cyclone Gabrielle as it bore down on the country on February 13th this year. All concluded that Gabrielle was due to a combination of warm oceans, warm air, La Niña conditions, and a changing climate.
“The clearest signal of climate change for ex-tropical cyclones relates to the amount of rain which falls from the system … our results found approximately 5-10% more rain fell. This roughly corresponded to a doubling in the frequency of similarly wet events when compared to model simulations of a world without climate change.” (Dr Luke Harrington, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, University of Waikato)
Yet, we still hear from some quarters that Aotearoa/New Zealand is such a small emitter globally that attempts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are futile and that we should instead concentrate on adaption.
This argument is pulled to pieces by retired farmer, Geoff Pricket,t in a recent Letter of the Week in the Farmer’s Weekly (reproduced in full further below):
“This (argument) assumes that a small community of 5 million needs to accept no responsibility for the situation we are in. Does that apply to all such communities? There are 1.4 billion people in China – that is 280 communities of 5 million; can the same apply to each of them? In fact it matters what everyone one of us does – climate change is everyone’s responsibility”. (Geoff Prickett, Kāpiti Coast)
Wise Water Use concur with Geoff Prickett’s conclusion that “we won’t outrun exponential change”, and that it’s crucial we all change our thinking about the ways we live, work and play. In the agricultural sector we are advocating for Wise Water Use first, before investigating expensive engineering projects like dams and aquifer recharge. As a priority our Regional Council needs to review and reallocate large water consents away from inefficient intensive dairy farming, which is responsible for 20% of greenhouse gas emissions from harmful methane.
Dr Trevor Le Lievre (Spokesperson, Wise Water Use)
Everyone’s responsibility
Alan Emerson appears out of his depth as he attempts to come up with a rational take on the destruction wrought by Cyclone Gabrielle (Farmers Weekly, 13 March 2023). Unfortunately he is saddled with a history of denial – denial about the risks and denial of the responsibility of New Zealand and it’s farming industry.
The attack on Met reports and forecasting is no more than a diversion – find someone to blame. In fact there has never been a more closely studied, analysed and forecast storm in NZ’s history. Days before it arrived we were warned it was shaping up to be powerful, dangerous and destructive.
Alan claims that “the information we are receiving on the effects of climate change is, at best, confusing”. There is information and there is confusion – they are two different things. If he had followed the science of climate change over the last 40 years he would not make such a claim. If he listens to the midnight opinions of those who spread denial and misinformation on the subject – too many of them in the farming industry – he may well become confused.
The science has been abundant and clear on this issue since the 1970s and is now being backed up by the arrival of exponential change – that is, change which feeds on itself to accelerate the process.
According to Alan, “NZ could remove all cars and cows tomorrow and it would make no discernible difference to world GHG emissions”. For a start that is simply not true – but worse it assumes that a small community of 5 million needs to accept no responsibility for the situation we are in. Does that apply to all such communities?
He likes to compare us to China. There are 1.4 billion people in China – that is 280 communities of 5 million; can the same apply to each of them? In fact it matters what everyone one of us does – climate change is everyone’s responsibility. You either contribute to a solution or you contribute to the problem.
He claims to be an optimist, concluding that farming has changed continually since the 1880s and done so successfully. This completely misreads the situation.
All past change occurred in a situation of relative climatic certainty – bearing in mind that farming has forever contended with the vagaries of the weather. Today, humanity faces a completely new world, an unprecedented situation, exponential climate change caused not by natural evolution but by human behaviour.
The latest buzzword is ‘adaption’. Yes, we can rethink our towns, cities, infrastructure and farming industry to cope with change, but not forever. We won’t outrun exponential change and that is the situation we face.
(Find Geoff Prickett’s letter on page 18 of the 20 March digital version of Farmers Weekly . The opinion piece which he is responding to, by Alan Emerson, appears on page 24 of the previous week's Farming Weekly edition.)
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